Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2015 8:10AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Freezing levels and solar radiation are somewhat uncertain for the next few days. If the sun is out, or the snow is moist or wet, avalanches will be more likely.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain mainly dry and progressively cooler conditions for the forecast period. Tuesday: Very light precipitation and generally overcast skies / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m Wednesday: Mainly clear skies / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m Thursday: Mainly clear skies / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m

Avalanche Summary

At the time of publishing on Monday, no new avalanches had been reported. With warming and solar radiation, I'm sure there was a decent round of loose wet avalanche activity. The forecast cooling trend suggests this sort of activity will become less likely. That said, I'd pay close attention to daytime temperatures and solar radiation as this will likely be the driver for further activity of this type.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of settled storm snow has been saturated by rain up to about 2100m. Surfaces may be moist or refrozen, depending on current temperatures and solar radiation. At the highest elevations you might find dense, stubborn wind slabs in lee terrain. New cornice development has also been noted. The older storm snow overlies a hard crust and/or surface hoar layer which formed in early January. The bond at this interface will be largely elevation dependant as rain may have penetrated the snowpack enough to dissolve the crust in many areas. At higher elevations where snow has fallen, this interface may still be reactive although no recent avalanches have been reported at this interface.Deeper snowpack weaknesses seem to have become unreactive, and should become even less of a concern if the forecast cooling trend verifies.

Problems

Loose Wet

With slight cooling and overcast skies forecast for Tuesday, loose wet avalanches will become less likely. Use increased caution if the sun makes an appearance.

Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices have grown with recent storms and are likely fragile due to more recent warming. At higher elevations a large cornice fall may be what it takes to trigger a larger avalanche on weak layers which formed earlier in the season.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2015 2:00PM