Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Around 10 cm new snow is expected overnight and into Thursday morning with the passage of the cold front before a short-lived ridge sets up over the area bringing a temporary reprieve. Winds on Thursday will shift from SW 40 km/h to NW 30 km/hr. Freezing level will be at valley bottom. On Friday, a weak frontal system will bring light precipitation with moderate SW winds. On Saturday, a stronger frontal system will give heavy precipitation (current estimate 30 cm), with freezing levels rising to 1500 m and strong southwesterly winds.

Natural avalanches up to size 3 have been reported during the recent storm, mostly on northeast aspects. Poor visibility and a lack of observers has been hampering observations at higher elevations.

A significant storm dropped 40 to 80 mm of precipitation on this region with high winds and freezing levels going to at least 1500 m. Expect touchy fresh wind slabs and storm slabs from the new snow. Also expect a firm rain crust below about 1500 m. With all the new snow, earlier weak layers are getting rapidly buried to the point where they are hard to trigger. A relatively thin layer of surface hoar or facets was reportedly buried New Year's day - this may have been the focus of some of the storm snow releases during the current storm; however, I suspect this layer will settle out quite rapidly. Lower down, it is still possible to find a surface hoar/crust/facet combo from mid-December. I suspect it would take a very heavy trigger such as a cornice fall to trigger this layer now, although if you are traveling in an unusually shallow snowpack area I'd still be cautious of it. The lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.