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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2020–Jan 6th, 2020
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

The recent snow may become more reactive as the next storm approaches on Monday, bringing warm air and a switch from snow to rain. Expect rapidly changing snowpack conditions as the weather changes. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, moderate west wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 600 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 20 cm, moderate to strong west wind, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 700 m rising to 1500 m over the day.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 60 to 80 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature 2 C, freezing level 1500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 cm, light to moderate northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

The recent storm snow was reported to have produced small avalanches on Sunday. As the next storm arrives, avalanche activity is expected to spike when the freezing level rises and snow switches to rain. This switch will rapidly destabilize the snow and increase the likelihood of wet avalanches below the snow line and storm slab avalanches above the snow line.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 to 60 cm of snow fell above around 800 m on Sunday. This snow overlies a melt-freeze crust up to about 1500 m or hard wind-affected surfaces at higher elevations. The next storm on Monday afternoon will drop another 15 to 20 cm of snow before the freezing level rapidly increases on Monday afternoon to 1500 m. The rise in freezing and switch from snow to rain will rapidly moisten the snow surface late Monday.

Terrain and Travel

  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Upwards of 40 to 60 cm of snow accumulated in the region on Sunday. This amount of snow will need some time to stabilize. A rapid air temperature increase and switch from snow to rain is expected on Monday, which could make storm slabs more touchy to human traffic. Conservative decision-making is essential to avoid this problem at and below treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Best to plan your day to be back at the trailhead when the precipitation switches from snow to rain. The rain will rapidly destabilize the previously dry snow and increase the likelihood of wet loose avalanches. Plan your route to avoid overhead exposure.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2