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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 2nd, 2019–Mar 3rd, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Cold temps continue...  When snow finally does come, it will be falling on a widespread weak snowpack.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Slightly warmer temps on Sunday but still cold with a lack of wind.  Ensure you are on a solar aspect if you head outside...

Avalanche Summary

Only isolated sluffing from steep terrain up to sz 1 on solar aspects later in the day.  There was also a MIN regading a Sa sz 1.5 on Mt Indefatiagable on Friday that involved the upper snowpack running far and fast on top of an underlying suncrust.  Be aware of fast sluffing in steep terrain as you ski.

Snowpack Summary

Continued cold temps (-40C Saturday morning) are rotting out the snowpack at lower elevations.  Below 2000m in many areas its not supportive at all.  At treeline and above isolated pockets of windslabs should be expected along ridgelines and in crossloaded features.  These slabs are 10-20cm thick and reactive to skier triggering.  The do not extend far downslope at this time but if winds increase we can expect these slabs to become more specific to widespread.  The bit of heat we are seeing is triggering loose dry slides on solar aspects later in teh day.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are being found along ridgelines at treeline and above. In most areas they are resting on a thick layer of facets and could be easily triggered in unsupported terrain. Cracking was observed by forecaters in Alpine terrain on Friday.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem is a "low probability, high consequence" situation. While difficult to trigger, if the layer does fail it will result in a full depth avalanche.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

Watch for solar triggered loose dry slides later in the day on Sunday
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5