Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 11th, 2015 7:38AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The question for tomorrow will be when and how strong the winds become in the afternoon. At treeline especially, watch the wind pattern and have alternate plans if the winds pick up early.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

As a significant system approaches, we can expect flurries and moderate to high winds along the divide. Accumulation for the next 24hrs is forecast to be minimal, but local amounts will vary. The winds will come out of the SW for the next 48hrs. Alpine winds will be in the strong to extreme range with sustained gusts to 75km/hr as of tomorrow afternoon. We are expecting an abrupt change(for the worse) in the weather early tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will also rise as the day progresses. A high of -6 is expected.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new was seen today, but visibility was marginal.

Snowpack Summary

The surface hoar that had been developing over the last few days has now been buried by a fresh layer of snow. At the moment this surface hoar layer is only down 3-8 cm's and is somewhat unknown in terms of its location within the terrain. Below the surface hoar, existing windslabs are still intact and potentially reactive in steep, crossloaded alpine terrain. The recent flurries have now pushed the treeline and below treeline amounts within threshhold. Avalanche problems, notably loose dry avalanches, may be encountered in specific terrain (steep gullies or wind exposed areas). We can also start to expect fresh cornices at ridge lines.

Problems

Loose Dry

Relatively cold snow is arriving with little wind. We can expect steep slopes to sluff easily. Ice climbers, watch the terrain above and avoid exposure to gullies.

Choose ice climbs that are not exposed to avalanches from above.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

At the moment the lack of wind has kept slab development limited to the alpine. Once the wind picks up, slabs will form quickly at alpine and upper treeline elevations. Buried slabs are likely to be triggered by people in steep, unsupported slopes.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.>Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 12th, 2015 2:00PM