Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Tuesday should produce fairly benign weather.  Hi cloud with the occasional sunny break is the most likely scenario.  No precipitation is expected, ridgetop winds will be light from the NW. Alpine temperatures will remain near -10 with freezing levels generally sitting near 800 m rising to 1100 m Tuesday. Wednesday should start to see a change as the next system sets up. Timing and intensity of Wednesdays system is uncertain.  Freezing levels may climb to 1500 m, and winds will switch out of the South.

No new information today. However, if the recent load did not produce avalanches, I would keep in mind that human triggering is likely. If you and your friends have been out riding in the backcountry, and have observations to share, please send an email to [email protected]

The region received 15 to 30 cm of snow in the recent storm. Storm slab and wind slabs instabilities exist; however, with the current cooling dry trend this new snow may start to settle and bond. Wind loaded slopes that haven't produced avalanches already are my main concern for human triggering since two fairly deep persistent weak layers are found on all aspects and in the alpine and at treeline. The surface hoar layer is buried under approx. 60 cm, and the early season November crust is deeper, near the bottom of the snowpack ranging from 80 to 100 cm. The facet-crust layer is less reactive, however we do not have recent information about the sensitivity of the surface hoar layer.  There is still a sharp transition in snow depth from treeline to below treeline making backcountry travel challenging below 1300 m.