Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to develop late Monday night and last through Tuesday especially near and above treeline. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Tuesday.
Detailed Forecast
The avalanche danger will increase rapidly Monday night as warm frontal precipitation spreads over the Olympics and increases during the early morning hours. Snow should turn to rain by Monday morning at Hurricane Ridge.
Storm slab instabilities should develop during intense precipitation periods Monday night and due to the overall warming trend. New wind slab should develop mainly above treeline on NW through E slopes. Loose wet avalanches will become very likely on steeper slopes at elevations that see a switch to rain. Avalanches that begin in the new snow may become larger as they entrain or step down to snowfall received Sunday and Sunday night. A quick switch to rain below treeline Monday night will likely cause an avalanche cycle at lower elevations overnight and limit the size of avalanches below treeline.Â
Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to develop late Monday night and last through Tuesday especially near and above treeline. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Tuesday.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Springlike weather under high pressure Wednesday and Thursday led to abundant sunshine with temperatures climbing into the 40's. This weather allowed for melt-freeze crust formation and varying amounts of wet surface snow depending on slope aspect during the day. A weak front brought mostly light rain to Hurricane Friday night to Saturday morning.
A strong Pacific frontal system blew through the Olympics mid-morning Sunday. Around 12 inches of snow accumulated through Monday morning at Hurricane Ridge accompanied by a cooling trend. Moderate S-SW transport winds seen Sunday tapered off Sunday night.Â
The mid and lower snow pack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.
Recent Observations
NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Friday and found mostly consolidated stable snow. N to E slopes had areas of 25-30 cm of wind transported 4F snow well bonded to 1F melt form grains in the upper snow pack. South through west slopes were melted out in some places with shallower dense stable snow in others.
The road to Hurricane Ridge remained closed on Sunday due to the weather.Â
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1