Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 14th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Take a mindset of initial assessment with you as you investigate the outcome of the storm. There's a good chance new snow won't be bonding well with the surfaces below it.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Cloudy with increasing flurries bringing 10-20 cm of new snow. Light to moderate south or southeast winds.
Monday: Cloudy with continuing flurries and about another 5 cm of new snow, easing over the day. Light southeast winds shifting all the way around to northwest by late afternoon, then increasing. Alpine high temperatures around -4.
Tuesday: Cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and up to 5 cm of new snow, including the overnight period. Strong northwest winds, easing over the day. Alpine high temperatures around -4.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -6.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from the first days of our building storm pattern describe small (up to size 1) loose snow releases triggerable on south to west aspects at treeline on the North Shore as well as new wind slabs forming initially on northwest aspects. Expect conditions to be a couple of notches more dangerous, affecting all aspects and elevations on Monday as snowfall increases and elevated winds continue to shift around.
Snowpack Summary
Two day new snow totals of 15-25 cm are expected to accumulate in the region by the end of the day on Monday, forming widespread new storm slabs, especially in more wind-exposed areas.
The surface beneath our accumulating snow consists of a thin cover of low density snow (where sheltered) and more widespread wind-affected snow. Recent cold has been transforming this surface snow into weak, faceted grains. This overlies a mix of thin breakable crust and yet more old wind-affected snow. 30-40 cm of gradually faceting storm snow below this layer, a more supportive crust solidly caps the snowpack below about 1400 metres. This crust may be absent at higher elevations.
Click here to check out North Shore Rescue's snowpack update from February 12. It's an excellent snapshot of conditions on the North Shore in advance of the current storm pattern.
Terrain and Travel
- Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
- Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
- Watch for avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Another round of new snow and wind will be forming reactive new wind slabs on Sunday. The freshest, touchiest slabs are expected to form in the lee of forecast south winds (think north slopes), but recent, potentially still reactive slabs may already be found on a wide range of aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 15th, 2021 4:00PM
