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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2022–Dec 16th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

The snowpack this year is still generally weak and will not improve anytime soon. Travel in the backcountry is challenging going up or down.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Right now we basically have 3 layers of concern. The upper half ranges from low density snow below tree line to reasonably stiff wind slabs at tree line and above. The trouble starts with a thin layer that sits almost exactly at the mid pack line. It seems to be a different layer type from area to area, but it is consistently bad. Whether it's surface hoar or facets doesn't really matter. Regardless of the grain, its a touchy layer that is reliably failing with little to no load. The bottom half of the snowpack is a thick layer of facets which also spells trouble. Nobody is really skiing out there because the travel is not great going up or down.

Weather Summary

Expect a mostly cloudy day on Friday with flurries starting in the afternoon. Winds will be moderate from the NW with a high of -10c. A few cm of snow expected on Saturday. Colder for Sunday.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem has just been changed to Deep Persistent.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Small alpine slabs will likely trigger slabs at treeline. There is potential for full depth avalanches right now.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2