Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with strong solar input and light ridgetop wind from the southwest. Freezing level 1700 m and alpine temperatures near -4 C. 

Thursday: WARM. Freezing levels rise to 3000 m with no overnight freeze. Alpine temperatures +3C and ridgetop wind moderate from the southwest. 

Friday: Cloudy and warm with up to 10 cm of new snow. No overnight freeze and freezing levels remain near 2500 m with alpine temperatures near +3C. Freezing levels should drop to 1400 m by Saturday with alpine temperatures near -10 C.

Sunday night's storm showed evidence of a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 on Monday with the average storm/ wind slabs reported to size 2. They mostly failed in the recent storm snow. Some larger avalanches may have failed on the end of March melt-freeze crust. 

Avalanche hazard will likely spike on Wednesday with sunshine and the effects of solar radiation on the recent storm snow.  

Wednesdays' sun and warming will likely create moist/ wet surface snow on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain top on southerly slopes. 

15 to 30 cm of recent storm snow has buried multiple crusts in the upper snowpack. Moderate to strong west/ southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs and developing large cornices. 

The new snow brings 50-70 cm above will a crust from late March. The amount of snow on the crust tapers rapidly at lower elevations. This crust is present on all aspects up to an elevation of 2500 m. Below the crust, the snow is moist. 

The early-December rain crust is approximately a metre off the ground. Large slab avalanches failed on this interface last week following a rain and warming event. This layer may be dormant now due to colder weather, however, it may appear again during the next big warm-up or with increased load from wind, snow and/or rain. 

• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
• If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
• The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.