Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

A storm impacts the coast Sunday which should start to erode the ridge of high pressure that has been plaguing the province for the last week.  A bit of snow may venture into the region Sunday with potential for another wee storm Tuesday night into Wednesday.  SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate southwest wind in the alpine, no significant precipitation expected.SUNDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate southwest wind for most of the day with potential for some stronger alpine gusts in the late afternoon, trace of precipitation possible during the day, potential for 2 to 10 cm of snow Sunday night.MONDAY: Overcast, freezing level near valley bottom, light west wind, trace of precipitation possible.TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level near valley bottom, moderate to strong west/southwest wind in the alpine, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible during the day, potential for 3 to 10 cm of snow Tuesday night.

Shallow size 1 loose dry avalanches were sensitive to skier traffic on Friday. A size 1 human triggered storm slab avalanche was also reported from a steep north facing feature at 2400 m.

The snowpack is generally stable right now, but low hazard doesn't mean no hazard. 35-65 cm of snow sits on a layer of surface hoar (weak feathery crystals) and sun crust on steeper south facing slopes. The surface hoar is most prominent at treeline, but it may be found in sheltered alpine areas. Recent snowpack tests in the region suggest that this layer may be most problematic in places where the surface hoar is sitting on the sun crust. This combination is most likely found on south aspects at treeline.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed near the end of October. Concern for this layer is dwindling but it may still be worth considering in places such as steep, rocky, alpine terrain, especially where the snowpack is shallow. It would likely take a large trigger such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.