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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2013–Jan 22nd, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Danger ratings on Wednesday/ Thursday are set for the Coquihalla, and will be lower elsewhere. 

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Moderate to strong SW wind.  Alpine temperature near +3, dropping during the day. Light snow.Wednesday: Moderate S wind.  Alpine temperature near -6. Moderate snow (locally heavy on the Coquihalla).Thursday: Light snow. Winds and snow increasing late in the day.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations mostly involve snowballing and wet loose avalanches to size 2 on sun-exposed slopes. Ongoing wet loose avalanche activity is quite likely with forecast warm temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Unseasonably warm temperatures in the alpine have led to a melt-freeze cycle on sun-exposed slopes. Wind-affected surfaces are found at treeline and above. Large surface hoar crystals are growing in sheltered terrain below treeline.A surface hoar layer buried down 40-80 cm seems to be gaining strength. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by warming or heavy triggers in unsupported, shallow, rocky terrain where more faceting has taken place.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity is possible with ongoing warm temperatures. Watch for triggering in steep, sun-exposed terrain.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornice failure is possible with continued warm temperatures. Watch for triggering when the solar influence is strong.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4