Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Mainly overcast skies, strong southwest winds and very light snowfall are expected on Saturday. On Sunday and Monday a Pacific low will make landfall bringing heavy snowfall (up to 40cm) with the highest accumulations forecast for the south of the region. Winds with the storm should be strong to extreme from the southwest. Freezing levels should hover around 1000m on Saturday, spiking briefly to 1500m on Sunday, and then falling back to about 1000m on Monday

At the time of writing, observations were extremely limited, but I expect a large, widespread natural cycle occurred in response to snow and wind-loading over the past few days. I would expect ongoing potential for human triggering of the new snow due to underlying weak surfaces. Looking forward, I would expect natural storm slab activity to ramp up again with new snow and wind forecast for Sunday and Monday.

By Friday morning up to 40cm of new snow had fallen with the highest accumulations occurring in the southwest of the region. The new snow, moderate temperatures and strong southwest winds have likely built dense wind slabs on lee features, and storm slabs in more sheltered spots. The new snow overlies a variety of interfaces including old hard wind slabs, hard crusts, surface hoar, and/or surface facets. At the base of the snowpack, weak facets may be found, particularly on alpine slopes in the north of the region. Keep an eye out for cornices that could fail.