Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2015 8:10AM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

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Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies for Tuesday. On Wednesday the ridge will flatten-out allowing for a weak pacific system to bring light snowfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to be light from the northwest on Tuesday, and then become strong and southwesterly with Wednesday's system. Freezing levels will shoot to about 3500m on Tuesday, and then drop to about 1500m on Wednesday and Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

With continued warming, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures will remain the primary concern, particularly on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of cold, lower density snow overlie a thick hard crust on high, north-facing terrain. Below about 2000m there is no snow on the crust and surface runnels show the effect of recent rain showers. Sun-exposed slopes have become moist, or wet with recent daytime warming and solar radiation, while cornices are reported to be large and potentially fragile. Below the surface crust, the snow is still moist; however, the mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-consolidated. Most of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.

Problems

Loose Wet

Freezing levels may climb as high as 3500m on Tuesday. The warm temperatures, combined with solar radiation, will increase the chances of loose wet avalanches. Watch for increased reactivity in steep, sun-exposed terrain.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices will become weaker with forecast warming and solar radiation. Use extra caution on or below ridge crests.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2015 2:00PM