Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Sunday: Locally variable light convective snow showers, amounting to a few cm. Sunny breaks in the afternoon. Generally light winds. Freezing level near 600m.Monday: Scattered cloud. Light winds. Cool in the morning and warming by afternoon with the influence of sunshine. Freezing level near 600m.Tuesday: Moderate snow and moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Freezing level between 500m and 1000m.

On Thursday, a natural loose moist avalanche cycle was observed in the Coquihalla region between 1400-1700m, with avalanches of size 2-3.5. A few slabs also released, with crowns of 50-60 cm. Explosives testing in the Duffey Lake area produced slab avalanches up to size 2.5 and skiers triggered very touchy storm slabs to size 1.5. The recent storm snow may become reactive under the influence of direct sunshine on Sunday or Monday. Surface avalanches could step down to deeper weak layers, creating large avalanches.

Recent storm snow has created slabs at all elevations, which started out being very touchy, but seem to have gained strength. Strong southerly winds have created wind slabs behind ridgelines and terrain breaks. Crusts down 50-60 cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and Coquihalla areas. These exhibit moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests. Deeper persistent weak layers are variable in distribution across the region. A crust/surface hoar/facet layer buried in early February, now down about 1.5m, is still is a key concern. It is especially prevalent on south-facing slopes above treeline, and all slopes below treeline. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.