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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 15th, 2017–Feb 16th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

The heavy rain on Wednesday-Thursday will make the snowpack unstable. Conservative terrain use and avoiding overhead hazard is critical.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Warm and wet still on Thursday. Cooling with light precipitation on Friday, and improving for Saturday. THURSDAY: Rain (20-30mm) / Moderate southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 1200 m. FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries (local accumulations 5-10cm) / High temperatures to +1 Celsius / Light-moderate southerly winds / Freezing level around 1100 m. SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Ridge winds light southerly  / Freezing level around 900m / High temperatures to +1 Celsius.

Avalanche Summary

No new reported. Ski testing of small slopes gave no results on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

The 50-70 cm of snow from last week has been saturated by 100mm + of rain on Tuesday through Wednesday. So far, all has been bonding well to a knife hard crust buried Feb 3rd. That said, snowpack tests near the Cypress ski area on the weekend gave sudden planar, propagation-likely results down 70cm on the Feb 3rd widespread crust layer. This may become a sliding layer on Thursday with the continued rain.In the alpine, where the precipitation fell as snow, the storm slabs have taken longer to settle out and still are a concern: Dig down to test the bond of the more recent snow layers, and to see how the rain is affecting it. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Heavy rain will saturate the upper snowpack and may trigger wet slab avalanche release on the widespread Feb 3rd crust, down 50-70cm.
Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Avoid areas with overhead hazard.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3