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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 26th, 2016–Dec 27th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

A series of storms is ramping up avalanche danger in the South Coast mountains.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Up to 40cm of new snow is expected to fall by Tuesday morning. Continuing flurries on Tuesday will add approximately 10 cm to this amount. Winds will continue moderate gusting to strong from the southwest. Freezing level rising to 800 metres with alpine temperatures to -1.Wednesday: Isolated flurries delivering a trace of new snow. Winds light gusting to strong from the southwest. Freezing level at 700 metres with alpine temperatures to -3.Thursday: Another storm wave will drop up to 40cm of new snow, intensifying over the day. Winds will be moderate gusting to strong from the south with freezing levels at about 800 metres and alpine temperatures near -1.

Avalanche Summary

Ski cutting in the North Shore mountains on Saturday exposed a weakness about 5cm deep in our previous storm snow. Watch for reactivity at this layer and at the new snow interface as forecast snowfall piles up.

Snowpack Summary

After 5cm of new snow over Sunday night, snow continues to fall on the South Coast mountains. The new snow has fallen on a variable surface that includes pockets of surface hoar and surface facets. Below this, 15 -20cm of dense storm snow overlies a rain crust formed on December 20. A radiation crust that formed on December 19 can be found roughly 30cm deep on solar aspects. These upper layers cap 40cm of well settled storm snow from the series of storms early last week. The storm snow seems to have a good bond to the layers below, where surface hoar and facets have begun to show signs of rounding. An old rain crust buried on December 3 is reported to be down 150-180cm in the North Shore mountains. This layer is well bonded to overlying snow and no stability concerns exist below this layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm slabs are growing quickly and will take time to bond to the surface.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2