Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 26th, 2014–Mar 27th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Cold temperatures may be preserving the buried persistent weak layers. Watch for warming from solar exposure that may increase sensitivity to triggering.

Confidence

Fair - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: Overcast and cool with freezing levels dropping close to valley bottoms. Strong Easterly outflow winds. Chance of flurries or light precipitation.Friday: Overcast with Easterly outflow winds. Freezing level rising briefly up to about 700 metres.Saturday: Overcast with a slight warming trend from a weak Southwest flow. Freezing level rising to 800-1000 metres with a chance of some sunny periods.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Strong Easterly winds have been reported to have caused intense wind transport of the recent storm snow, developing pockets of wind slab on various aspects in the alpine and at treeline. Forecast cool temperatures are not expected to promote much settling or bonding of the near surface layers, and probably not much change to the persistent weak layers. The deeply buried persistent weak layers continue to provide moderate to hard sudden planar results in snow profile tests, but may be deep enough to require a heavy load for triggering. The March weak layer is a combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects. This layer is widespread throughout the forecast region and is now buried close to 150cm in most parts of the area. A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is now buried 200 cm or more.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong Easterly outflow winds have developed hard wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline.

Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The early March persistent weak layer is buried deep enough to produce large avalanches when triggered. The added load of the recent storm slabs may result in deep slab avalanches.

Avoid runouts where triggering slopes from below is possible.>Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The early February persistent weak layer is buried deeply in the snowpack and continues to be a concern. Heavy loads like cornice falls or storm slab avalanches in motion may trigger this weak layer resulting in very large avalanches.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6