Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2016–Jan 30th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

The snowpack is going through a change right now. It will take some time for it to adjust to the new snow load. Any additional load will quickly increase the Danger levels. Keep wind transport in mind as a loading source.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Low -9 at 2500m. West winds 15-35km/hr.Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine high of -8. West winds 20-40km/hr

Avalanche Summary

Some storm slabs have pulled out of alpine features. So far these are concentrated to the northern portion of the region. These maxed out at sz2 and were on S & W aspects.

Snowpack Summary

There is now a light, 1cm thick melt/freeze crust at valley bottom. Beneath this is a mess of facets that provides little to no support. Difficult trail breaking in many areas. Currently there is 5-10cm of new snow sitting on top of the crust. Near treeline there is a distinct slab layer that ranges in stiffness. This slab layer is sitting on the Jan 6th facet layer, which provides almost no support. For the first time this year, some whumphing was noted. At upper treeline these slabs become more prominent as do the weak spots around trees and rocks. Thin areas are becoming more problematic. The alpine is a similar situation with a variety of new and old wind slabs. The top storm slabs are 10-20cm thick. The alpine snowpack has a hollow nature to it that does not inspire confidence at the moment. It feels as though we're on the verge of overloading the Jan 6th layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

These will be found in lee areas and may extend a little further than expected. Avoid loaded areas that may appear wavy or rippled from the wind.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

This problem describes a number of laminated windslabs that have weak interfaces between them. They may step down to the weak Jan 6th layer if initiated.

Avoid cross loaded features.>Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This layer is going to become a problem with any additional load. Our neighboring forecast regions have already seen some big avalanches on this layer. We are expecting the same with any additional load. It is down 40-50 in the alpine right now.

Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4