Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 27th, 2015–Jan 28th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Wind slabs in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline remain the principal concern, but also keep an eye on the solar radiation effect on steep sunny slopes. Ski quality remains poor due to widespread crusts and wind effected snow.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud on Wednesday with highs near -6 in the Alpine. Winds will shift to the NW and diminish in speed significantly. No precipitation is expected until at least Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today. Minor snowballing observed on steep solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Cooler overnight temperatures formed thick crusts on the snowpack at lower elevations and thinner crusts at Treeline elevations. These crusts were breaking down on steep solar aspects by midday. The snowpack continues to settle with the mild weather. Wind slabs are dominant in Alpine areas and open areas at Treeline, especially on N and E aspects. Test results at 2180m today indicate shears down 10 to 20cm in the easy to moderate range and hard shears on the mid-December layer down 35 to 50cm (depending on aspect and elevation). The November weak basal layers remain a concern.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs dominate Alpine areas and open areas at Treeline. These slabs are most concerning on steep N and E aspects. Due to the density of the wind slabs wide propagations are possible.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The mid-December layer (buried 35 to 50cm) and the weak November basal layers are still reactive in stability tests. Avalanche activity in the last several days has stepped down to these interfaces.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Wet

Much cooler temperatures on Wednesday will reduce avalanche activity on solar aspects, but loose wet avalanches remain a possibility. Keep a close eye on steep features that face the sun and avoid this terrain later in the day.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3