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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 18th, 2012–Nov 19th, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Up to 25cm of new snow Monday, with an additional 30+cm on Tuesday. Winds will remain strong from the SW. If this weather forecast comes true, a large natural avalanche cycle is expected to occur. It is time for very conservative terrain selection!

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Another 25cm or more possible on monday with an additional 30cm+ on Tuesday. Strong to extreme winds from the SW will continue.

Avalanche Summary

Limited observations due to variable visibility, but did see a few skier triggered slabs up to size 1.0 that were 30cm thick on average.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 20cm of new snow overnight forming soft and hard wind slabs in alpine and treeline locations, especially on N and E aspects. Moderate shears exist down 17cm and 23cm. Three separate crusts layers make up the midpack, with moderate to hard test results failing below these different crusts. Total height of snow at 2200m was 70cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Intense wind loading is occurring on lee and cross loaded features due to strong SW winds and ongoing precipitation. Slab formation was noted today and cracking was observed. Ski cutting produced small slabs failing on the Nov rain crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Persistent Slabs

Previously formed wind slabs are now getting hidden by the new snow. These persistent slabs will become more sensitive to human triggering as load is added. These slabs are also failing on the Nov rain crust and are prominent in gully features.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Dry

Steep lee and cross loaded features in the alpine are areas to watch for loose dry slides. Gully features, such as many ice climbs, should be treated with caution.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4