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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2016–Dec 18th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

As winds begin to increase will likely likely see an increase in loose dry avalanches and stiffening wind slabs.  We are on the cusp of a change.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Tomorrow we will see the blue sky begin to be pushed out slightly and more SW flow returning to the region.  Winds will increase with the arrival of the warmer temperatures (-16c) and beginning late on Sunday night we can expect to see some precipitation FINALLY fall here again.  Forecast amounts differ but roughly 10cm of snow should be expected based on the weather models on saturday eve.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few loose dry slides up to sz 1 were observed on Saturday out of steep unskiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Expect to encounter windslabs in open terrain in the alpine and at treeline and some un-distrubed snow in more sheltered areas. The 1112cr is down 50-70cm and producing variable results often within a few meters so be sure to evaluate this layer. The cold temps have certainly taken their toll on lower snowpack areas and they are weak and facetted.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches can easily run far and fast over an ice climb so be mindful of overhead terrain before you commit. Winds increasing over the next 24hrs will likely trigger these avalanches in steeper terrain.
Carry avalanche safety equipment on ice climbs in avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Cold temps are breaking these down, the exception is in wind prone areas. Watch for a lingering hard slab as you approach wind features.  It is possible that these may step down to the 1112 crust down 50cm so be sure to pull out that shovel and dig. 
Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2