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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 1st, 2014–Apr 2nd, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A frontal system approaches the North Coast on Wednesday leading to clouds and precipitation developing Wednesday afternoon. Light snowfall through the forecast period is expected.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 500m - 1100m; Precipitation: 2:11mm - 2:15cm; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, SWThursday: Freezing Level: 600m - 1200m; Precipitation: 2:9mm - 2:10cm; Wind: Treeline: Strong, S | Ridgetop: Extreme, SWFriday: Freezing Level: 800 - 1300m Precipitation: 1:5mm - 1:7cm; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, W

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity on Monday was limited to cornice fall (that did not initiate slab avalanches on impact) and wet point releases from solar aspects to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

It's starting to feel like spring in the NW. Valley temps are creeping into the double digits during the day, and there are reports of the top 15 cm of the snowpack becoming moist during daytime heating.The last significant shot of snow was on March 27th, 10 - 15 fell on March 30th. This new snow rests on top of a haggard old surface composed of old wind slab, melt freeze crust, and faceted old snow. Ongoing melt freeze cycles will likely help to heal any surface instabilities.The early March layer found in the upper snowpack is composed of facets/surface hoar on shady aspects and facets/crust on southerly aspects. I suspect this layer has been the culprit in the human triggered avalanches from March 27/28 in the neighboring NW Coastal region, that are being reported on the Balktalk Facebook Page.The early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo can be found deep in the snowpack, although I suspect it's gone dormant for now.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

While the old hard wind slabs are unlikely to be triggered at this point, fresh shallow wind slabs may be found immediately lee of ridge crest and mid slope features.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

At this point the deep persistent weak layers would likely require a specific trigger like cornice fall, a surface avalanche in motion, or a rider finding the sweet spot, to be activated.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6