Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Saturday: Expect mixed skies, giving brief sunny periods. Winds should be light from the northwest with alpine temperatures reaching -3.Sunday: Similar to Saturday, with longer sunny breaks possible. Winds should turn to southwesterlies and remain light with alpine temperatures reaching -2.Monday: Flurries are likely to build over the day giving light accumulations, with continued light west-southwest winds and alpine temperatures around -5.

A natural cycle has passed with windslab avalanches at treeline and in the alpine up to size 2.5 and loose wet sluffing at lower elevations. Isolated rider controlled avalanches up to size 1.0 in wind loaded areas have also been reported. The most recent reports speak of sluffing in steep terrain on shady aspects below treeline.

The recent light precip is tapering off. Southwesterly winds have maintained snow transport, and many areas show layers of windslab over windslab. Some places have seen swirling winds creating cross and reverse loading on isolated slopes. Warm daytime temperatures have moistened the surface snow in many areas up to treeline elevations; south aspects now has an eggshell crust that will break down when the sun pokes out.The deepest storm interface (from the very beginning of this storm cycle) includes a huge variety of old surfaces from facets to crusts and isolated pockets of surface hoar. There is very limited information about this interface, with the only results suggesting reactivity in sheltered, shady treeline and below treeline slopes (preserved surface hoar pockets). I would stress the importance of digging down to find and test weak layers.A strong mid-pack currently overlies a weak base layer of facets/depth hoar. It is worth noting that the snowpack in general is quite shallow compared to averages; triggering the basal weakness may still be possible from thin spots, rocky outcrops or with heavy triggers such as cornice fall.