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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 10th, 2015–Apr 11th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

An incoming weather system will create new avalanche problems for the weekend. Watch for increasing hazard with new snow and strong winds.

Weather Forecast

Winter weather is back. Mainly cloudy today with flurries and up to 4cm of accumulation. Freezing levels rise to 200m this afternoon with SW winds gusting to 55km/hr. A cold front arrives tonight with dropping freezing levels, 14cm of new snow and strong SW winds. Scattered flurries and cold temperatures persist for the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Melt freeze cycle below 2500m is formed a strong, 20cm thick crust. In the top meter of the snowpack there are multiple crusts that are reactive to tests but would likely need a large trigger. On Wednesday, dry facetted snow was found on northerly and shaded aspects above 1900m. Surface hoar on shaded aspects will get buried this weekend.

Avalanche Summary

The daytime heat triggered 2 natural cornice avalanches that pulled out slabs on the slope below. On the North face of Mt Bonney and Mt Clarke, a cornice triggered a size 3.0 avalanche that failed on glacier ice. Glide crack avalanches continue to be observed below treeline up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Temperatures may be cooling but cornices are still the main problem in Rogers Pass. Recent cornice failures have triggered persistent instabilities buried deep in the snowpack. The resulting avalanches are large with serious destructive potential.
Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3