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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2015–Feb 14th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Wet Avalanches are likely with warm temperatures and freezing levels up to 2500m.

Weather Forecast

Unseasonably warm temperatures will spike today as freezing levels climb to 2500m. Mainly cloudy with possible periods of sun at higher elevations. A cold front is set to arrive late this evening bringing a return to freezing temps and up to 12cm of snow. A high pressure ridge building on Sunday marks the return to cold temperatures and sunshine.

Snowpack Summary

Moist surface snow is expected to 2500m today as freezing levels climb. 1m of settled storm snow over the Jan 30 layer. This layer formed a crust to 2200m with spotty surface hoar distribution. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down 100-150cm and continues to be reactive in tests. Isothermal snow at lower elevations makes for challenging skiing.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 wet slab avalanche was observed on Cheops South in the highway corridor below treeline. Below treeline, wet snow is capable of running on a buried crust.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

With rising freezing levels expect wet avalanches at all elevations. The forecast is for clouds, but should the sun emerge watch for natural avalanches from steep solar aspects. Loose avalanches can gain mass and momentum quickly.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers within the top 150cm of the snowpack should not be forgotten, especially while temperatures remain warm. Smaller avalanches or cornice failures may step down and propagate on these deep instabilities.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 4