Avalanche Forecast

High - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Unsettled conditions and shifting freezing levels remain until Monday, when the next front approaches bringing light snow to the Coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries delivering 2cm by morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels fall below 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries. Strong westerly winds. Freezing levels remain below 1500 m for the day. Alpine high of +2. 

SUNDAY: Freezing levels take another spike, to near 2500 m with strong westerly winds. A mix of sun and high cloud with flurries. Alpine high +3. 

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing levels fall to 1500 m over the day. Alpine high of +4. 

A natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3, from the heavy precipitation and rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Several very large avalanches have been noted since the storm, up to size 4 where terrain allowed. A notable avalanche was naturally triggered near Harrison Lake, on the northeast border of the South Coast region. This was thought to have started as a cornice fall which triggered a large storm slab and stepped down to a deeper weak layer. It likely failed on the early December facets as it was up to 3 m deep in places and ran approximately 1300m. 

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m. As temperatures cool the wet snow will form a thick surface crust. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
• When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.