Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Sunday Night: Cloudy. 0-5 of snow expected, with very little expected around Smithers. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop winds. Freezing levels fall to valley bottom. Alpine high around -4 °C.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected, with very little expected in the northern half of the region. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop winds. Freezing level rising to around 750 m. Alpine temperatures around -5 °C.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Light flurries. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom in the morning, rising to 1200 m in the southern half of the region.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Light flurries. Light, variable wind. Freezing level at valley bottom in the morning, rising to 1000 m in the southern half of the region.

No new avalanches were reported before 4 pm on Sunday.

On Saturday, there were no new avalanches reported, but very thin windslabs were reported to be sliding on feathery surface hoar crystals. With continued wind and light snowfall, reactive wind slabs like this could grow large enough to be dangerous to a human. 

On Friday, in the Seaton area, a group reported firm, wind effected snow in the alpine, and small loose wet avalanches on steep slopes exposed to the sun. See their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here for a summary of the conditions in the area.

Also, an AST 2 course reported that windslabs were reactive to rider traffic on NE-E aspects in the alpine. They used ski cuts on small, safe test slopes to check the bond of the windslabs to the old surface. They also had a skier triggered avalanche reported to them from a 3rd party. It was on a cross loaded feature in Cardiac bowl. See their MIN post here for more information. 

Light flurries continue. In exposed terrain, moderate southeast ridgetop winds are continuing to build wind slabs on leeward features. These wind slabs overlie a variety of old, generally wind effected or faceted snow, and feathery surface hoar in sheltered areas.

The upper snowpack appears to be bonding to a rain crust buried in mid-February, but we are not ready to completely trust that bond until it has weathered some significant warming or precipitation.

This crust is 20-50 cm from the snow surface, and is 10-20 cm thick. It effectively caps the underlying snowpack, making human triggering of avalanches on deeper weak layers unlikely.

• Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
• Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.