Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 12th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. Where the crust breaks down with afternoon sun and warming, wet loose avalanches may still be possible on steep slopes.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
One more day of very warm and sunny conditions before the ridge breaks down Sunday night. A weak system is forecast to bring light snowfall Monday morning.Â
Saturday night: Clear, light W wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Sunday: Increasing cloud cover in the afternoon, light to moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m.Â
Monday: Light snow in the morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels 800-1200 m.Â
Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 1000 m.Â
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Friday. On Thursday, minor pinwheeling was reported where the sun broke through the fog. On Wednesday, ski cutting triggered some small loose wet avalanches which were failing in the top 10 cm and sliding on top of the crust.Â
For Sunday, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of a surface crust. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible on steep, sun-exposed slopes if the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.Â
Snowpack Summary
A widespread surface crust is reported at all elevations and aspects. This crust may be breaking down on steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon and reforming overnight with clear skies.Â
The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 40 cm and is reported to be knife hard and up to 30 cm thick. This crust extends to at least the top of treeline. While the snow above appears to be well bonded to this crust, we will continue to track it through this period of warming and sun for any signs of instabilities.
Another prominent crust from mid-January is now down around 1 m but this crust no longer appears to be a concern in the region. Below the mid-January crust, the middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches may still be possible on steep sun-exposed slopes where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 13th, 2022 4:00PM
