Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells, West Purcell.
Avalanche Danger will stay elevated as long as the freezing level stays high.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The natural avalanche cycle observed on the weekend and earlier in the week due to the warming event, has started to slow down. However there were still reports of a few wet slab or persistent slab avalanches to size 2-2.5 being reported Tuesday and Wednesday.
Until the snowpack gets re-frozen by cold temperatures, human-triggered avalanches remain possible.
Snowpack Summary
Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight but will break down quickly throughout the day.
The mid-snowpack has a couple of crusts and is generally faceted and weak above and below them.
At the base of the snowpack, weak faceted grains and depth hoar are present.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Mainly cloudy with clear periods. Alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperature 3 °C, freezing level 2500 m.
Thursday
Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine wind 10-30 km/h from the south and southwest. Treeline temperature 0°C, freezing level 2000 m.
Friday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h from the northwest. Treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1800 m.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Alpine wind 15 to 30 km/h from the northeast. Treeline temperature -3 °C, freezing level 1300 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches to run full path or even longer.
- Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
Rain and warm temperatures have impacted a weak and facetted snowpack. Wet slab avalanches could fail on or step down to buried weak layers in the mid and lower snowpack resulting in very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
If triggered, this problem will likely be the full depth of the snowpack and could run below treeline. Avoid shallow, rocky start zones.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanche activity can be expected from steep terrain. These avalanches could entrain significant mass and gouge to ground in shallow snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5