Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Tuesday night: Cloudy, scattered flurries with up to 5 cm of accumulation, strong west winds, alpine temperatures around -12 C.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, light west winds with moderate gusts near ridgetops, alpine high temperatures near -12 C.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, light northeast winds, alpine high temperatures near -14 C. 

Friday: Mostly sunny, light north winds, alpine high temperatures near -15 C.

Recent strong west winds are expected to have formed wind slabs in lee features at upper elevations that may be possible to human trigger. Over the last few days, operators in neighboring Glacier National Park reported several large (size 2-2.5) wind slabs releasing naturally on a variety of aspects. Cornices may be reaching their breaking point and can act as triggers on slopes below. 

This MIN from Clemina Creek over the weekend reports that the Jan 11th surface hoar was cracking and propagating in sheltered treeline and below treeline areas where it was buried 40-50 cm deep. There is uncertainty as to the distribution and sensitivity of a weak layer in the region. 

An extensive natural avalanche cycle occurred during last week's storm as up to 70 cm of new snow blanketed the region and was subsequently redistributed by strong winds. Several of these avalanches were thought to have stepped down to deeper layers (see this MIN report from the Gorge area for an example). In the absence of additional activity in the past week and given the current stable weather pattern, avalanches releasing down to these deeper layers are becoming unlikely.

Since field observations in this region are limited, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Winds have varied in speed and direction from southwest to northwest over the past few days, and they have redistributed the 10-25 cm of snow that fell over the weekend into a tricky loading pattern. Ongoing snow and wind over the past week have contributed to notable cornice growth. 

50-70 cm of snow from the past week has buried a weak of layer of surface hoar that has shown reactivity in the north of the region. Observations are limited, so the distribution and sensitivity to triggering of this layer is uncertain. This persistent weak layer is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Don't let decreasing winds and a clearing trend on Wednesday lure you into committing terrain. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing, the consequences of getting caught in one of these avalanches are significant. This presents a deceptive low probability/high consequence scenario that requires careful assessment.

A couple of older persistent weak layers exist in the mid to lower snowpack. The distribution of these layers is variable, but they follow a similar pattern to the layer discussed above. The upper layer from late December, down about 100-140 cm, consists of spotty surface hoar at shaded treeline and below treeline elevations. The lower layer from early December buried 150-200 cm deep consists of a combination of decomposing surface hoar with a crust and faceted snow. Snowpack tests on these layers show increasingly unreactive results, suggesting a trend towards dormancy.

• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.