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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 17th, 2020–Nov 18th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A dramatic warm-up accompanied by strong S'ly winds may trigger a natural avalanche cycle today.

Choose conservative lines with limited exposure to overhead start zones.

Weather Forecast

WARM and WINDY today, then snowy Wed-Fri.

Today: rapid warming with Alp high of +5*C, FZL rising to 3000m, strong/extreme S'ly winds

Tonight: snow, 15-20cm, FZL dropping to 1500m, mod/strong SW winds

Wed: flurries, 10cm, FZL 1500m, light/mod SW winds

Thurs: flurries, 7cm, FZL 1100m, light/mod SW winds

Fri: flurries, 7cm, FZL 900m, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

30-60cm of snow overlies a widespread Nov 5 crust. This crust complex has weaker snow crystals (facets) above, below, and sandwiched in the middle...yes, ugly! Snowpack tests yesterday had sudden planar and/or collapses in these facets. The Nov 5th rain crust reaches as high as 2500m, while a sun crust is found higher on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has decreased, with a few isolated storm slabs noted from Tupper and Macdonald. However, a skier accidental with a full burial occurred Saturday up Connaught Creek, where the storm slab was initiated on the Nov 5th crust. If you observe an avalanche or notable conditions, consider sharing on the AvCan MIN site.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Wind and warmth will stiffen up the surface slabs, causing them to become more sensitive to human triggering.

  • 1011
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5