Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Heightened avalanche conditions exist on wind loaded slopes and steep rocky terrain. There may also be an isolated weak layer 40 cm deep around Golden.
Confidence
Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.
Weather Forecast
A weak frontal system arrives on Tuesday.
SUNDAY NIGHT: A trace of snow overnight, moderate west wind, low temperatures around -8 C.
MONDAY: Cloudy with some light flurries, light southwest wind, high temperatures around -5 C.
TUESDAY: Scattered flurries with up to 5 cm of new snow, moderate southwest wind, high temperatures around -5 C.
WEDNESDAY: Another 5 cm of snow overnight then clearing in the afternoon, moderate west wind, high temperatures around -5 C.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control work produced a few small (size 1) storm slab and dry loose avalanches on Saturday.
A MIN report from the Clamshell near Golden reported a natural size 2.5 avalanche on Wednesday. This avalanche appears to have ran on a weak layer roughly 40 cm below the surface, which seems to be an isolated problem in this area.
Snowpack Summary
10-30 cm of soft snow overlies a rain crust found up to 2400 m in the south of the region and 1800 m in the north. In the north, the recent snow may sit over a weak layer of surface hoar or facets at elevations around treeline where this crust is not found. The recent snow may not be bonding well to these old surfaces. There have also been some reports of an isolated weak layer 40 cm below the surface around Golden.
The lower snowpack is characterized by a couple of crusts, the most notable is from a rain event in early November that is 50 to 100 cm deep. This crust is sitting near the base of the snowpack, surrounded by a weak layer of sugary facets. It is most likely to be reactive to human triggers or in a step-down from a smaller avalanche in shallow, rocky areas.
Terrain and Travel
- Investigate the bond of the recent snow
- Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
10-30 cm of soft surface snow may be blown into unstable slabs. In certain areas this snow may be poorly bonded to underlying layers of surface hoar and/or crusts. The problem is more likely found in northern parts of the region (e.g. Golden).
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
A facet/crust layer from early November sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer has shown signs of recent reactivity with explosive control in shallow rocky locations producing large avalanches. It is most likely to be triggered by humans in shallow, rocky areas or in a step-down from a smaller avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 3