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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2012–Jan 23rd, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: 8-12cm of snow / moderate southwest winds / freezing level at surfaceTuesday: moderate snowfall arriving tuesday evening / moderate to strong southwest winds / freezing level rising to 1300m by eveningWednesday: continued snowfall through early morning / winds becoming light and westerly / continued warm temperatures

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural avalanches from size 1 to size 2.5 were observed in the last 24hrs. Expect continued reactivity over the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

On friday and saturday storm snow accumulations amounted to over 40cm in some parts of the region (throughout the Monashees and the Revelstoke area) and closer to 20cm on the southeast side of the region. The upper snowpack is now characterized by deep wind slabs and storm slabs sitting on top of dry loose snow. Due to the nature of the most recent storm (warmer temperatures, moderate winds) you can expect a more reactive "upside-down" snowpack in wind-exposed areas where a denser layer over-rides colder, softer snow where weaknesses are more likely to endure. Various surfaces buried in early January including a rain crust, spotty surface hoar and preserved stellar snow crystals are now about 80-100cm deep and may provide a sliding layer for storm-related avalanches. A surface hoar layer buried in mid-December is gaining strength, but professionals are still treating it with caution as the consequences of an avalanche on this layer would be high. Occasional hard, planar results have been reported on this layer in snowpack tests. It's now down about 140cm in the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate ridgetop winds will have shifted snow into deep wind slabs on leeward slopes. Expect additional soft windslab development with forecast weather.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Storm Slabs

A classic recipe for storm slabs has evolved with rising temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall landing on loose dry snow. Watch for large storm snow avalanches, especially in steep or convex terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Loose Dry

Expect loose dry avalanches on steeper, sheltered features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4