Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry and cool, with sunny periods. Winds are generally light from the NW. The freezing level is at valley floor by night and rising to around 1200 m by day. The next storm system may arrive on Wednesday with warming temperatures and light precipitation, but weather models are not in agreement about this.

Several size 1.5-3 avalanches were triggered naturally over the last few days in response to storm loading, wind and warm temperatures. A number of cornice collapses and an ice fall have also been reported. Skiers triggered a very large (size 3.5) persistent slab on Thursday on a NE aspect in the alpine in the Monashees. It failed on the late-Jan layer. Now that temperatures have cooled, avalanche activity is likely to ease, although direct sun may spark a new avalanche cycle on steep slopes or cause more cornices to fall.

Now that the weather has finally cooled after ten days of very warm temperatures and bursts of rain, surface crusts have formed to at least 2000 m. Underneath newly formed crusts, you may find moist snow for a few days yet. At alpine elevations, new wind slabs or storm slabs may be found. Cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried up to a metre deep, continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests in some locations. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm. Chances of triggering this have decreased, but it could possibly be triggered from thin or rocky snowpack areas; or perhaps with a cornice fall, or an avalanche stepping down.