Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

A ridge of high pressure off the South Coast will continue to bring dry, warming conditions until Friday. As the ridge tracks inland it starts to break down, allowing a southwesterly flow to begin. This will bring unsettled conditions into the weekend. Wednesday: Some cloud in the am, high cloud in the afternoon, sunshine. Ridgetop winds moderate from the NW. Treeline temperatures near -6. Freezing levels 900m. Thursday: Clear, sunny and dry. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West. Treeline temperatures near -2. Freezing levels rising 12-1500 m, falling to 700 m overnight. Friday: Sunny skies. Ridgetop winds strong from the SW. Treeline temperatures near -2. Freezing levels 15-2000 m. Flurries expected overnight.

On Monday the region saw a widespread natural avalanche cycle in response to snow, wind and warming. Operators are reporting numerous size 1-3.5 natural avalanches, starting in the alpine on all aspects, and running full path. Rider triggered slabs were also reported in the size 1-2 range, failing on storm snow weaknesses. There are still reports of remotely triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 on suspected mid-February SH interface.

Over the weekend, up to 80 cm of storm snow fell. Strong winds from the SW and fluctuating temperatures were the perfect recipe for storm slab, and wind slab instabilities. This new snow has buried variable old surfaces (surface hoar, facets, and crusts) that formed mid-February. These persistent weak layers have remained touchy all week and are a key concern at all elevations. If triggered, the avalanches will be larger than expected. Sunny, clear skies are likely to exist through the forecast period. Moist-wet snow surfaces, snowballing, and point release (loose wet slides started from a point, gathering mass in a fan-like shape) are indicators of a deteriorating upper snowpack. I'd be weary of south facing slopes, affected by solar radiation. There may even be step-down potential on deeply buried weak layers. Large cornices have formed and loom as potential triggers on the slopes below.