Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

TONIGHT: 10-20cm of snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m WEDNESDAY: Light flurries / Light to moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m THURSDAY: 10-20cm of snow / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m

Evidence of a natural wind slab avalanche cycle to size 2.5 was observed at treeline and in the alpine on Sunday. Most of the natural activity is thought to have occurred in the height of Saturday night's storm, while wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were ski cut during the day. Of note, there was a report of a skier-triggered wind slab avalanche in Rogers Pass. The size 2 avalanche failed on a cross-loaded feature at 2150m. Two people went for a ride in the avalanche, one of whom sustained injuries and was rescued by helicopter on Monday morning. At the time of publishing this bulletin, observations were extremely limited; however, I'm sure there was similar activity observed on Monday. Increasing southwest winds and new snow on Monday night will spark a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain. Periods of sun on Tuesday may also promote loose wet avalanche activity in steep sun-exposed terrain, especially in spots where new snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time.

On Monday night, light to locally moderate amounts of new snow are expected to fall, and strong southwest winds are expected to form new wind slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. The new snow will overlie older wind slabs and settling storm snow from the past few days. About 40-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust. This crust exists in most places except for higher elevation shaded terrain. In general there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 200cm below the surface and has become less of a concern. Possible triggers for this deep and destructive layer include a large cornice fall or significant warming.