Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Rain showers and flurries should start by mid-day and continue into Wednesday night. Thursday is forecast to be unsettled with gusty southwest winds and periods of rain showers and flurries at higher elevations. The freezing level is forecast to rise to about 2000 metres by Thursday evening. The next Pacific frontal system is forecast to move into the interior by early Friday morning. Expect 5-10 mm of precipitation combined with freezing levels down to about 1600 metres. A weak ridge is forecast to build from south of the border on Saturday that should dry out the interior regions.

Spring conditions exist in the region. Exposure to the sun, warm temperatures, and periods of rain are the most likely factors to influence the avalanche danger. If the temperatures go below freezing overnight, strong crusts should develop that are likely to hold the snowpack together. If the sun shines for a few hours, the crusts may break down quickly and moist surface snow avalanches may start running naturally. Continued warming from more sun, rain, or no overnight freeze, may cause surface avalanches to step down and trigger deeper wet slab avalanches. Prolonged warming may cause very deep releases on weak layers that were deposited early in the season, or on depth hoar that developed during the winter. It is important to monitor the temperature and the freezing levels as they may change rapidly from day to day.

Last week, very warm temperatures affected all but the highest north facing slopes. Since Thursday morning, light to locally moderate amounts of new snow have formed soft slabs on the resulting crust at treeline and above while rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 80cm below the surface, you'll find another crust that was reactive last week in the alpine and at treeline. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm. The likelihood of avalanches failing on this layer have been decreasing due to cooler temperatures, however the consequence continues to be very large destructive avalanches.