Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Flurries overnight are expected to bring 3-5 cm by Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry with a chance of light flurries. The next storm should start early Thursday morning and at this time looks like it could bring 10-15 cm by Friday morning.

Some soft slab storm snow avalanches were reported on Sunday. I suspect that new storm snow avalanches were easy to trigger on Monday where the new snow was sitting on a hard crust and/or surface hoar that developed during the recent clear weather. Expect avalanche size to increase with incremental loading of the new storm slab later this week.

Up to 30 cm of new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces. A crust formed last week at most elevations. In some places it was breakable in others it was supportive. A thin widespread layer of surface hoar lies above this crust. At the highest elevations the old surface was widely wind-affected. Deeper in the snowpack the mid-January surface hoar remains a concern. It can be found down between 40 and 100 cm. In some locations it has reportedly gained quite a bit of strength, but elsewhere it is still producing sudden (popping) failures in snowpack tests. This spatial variability means we'll have to keep an eye on it for a while yet. The mid-December surface hoar layer is now 80 to 140cm below the surface and has become unlikely to fail.