Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 22nd, 2012 8:28AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada pmarshall, Avalanche Canada

Very touchy conditions mean it's a good idea to avoid all avalanche terrain. Maybe try flat meadows on a snowmobile, or for skiers, in-bounds at a ski resort.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mainly dry under a weak ridge of high pressure. Isolated flurries are possible but accumulations should be very light. FL 600-800m. Friday: Light to moderate snowfall - 10-15cm with the greatest amounts likely in the south. FL 500-800m. Winds should be moderate from the southwest. Saturday: Flurries continue in most areas. Winds should ease to light and variable. FL lowers to valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

It is likely that a large and widespread avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday. This cycle should continue into Thursday with forecast strong winds. Previous reports include numerous natural avalanches up to Size 3 and several remotely triggered avalanches up to Size 2.5. Avalanches were reported at all elevations and on slopes as shallow as 25 degrees.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate west-northwest winds are creating weak wind slabs in exposed alpine and treeline terrain. Up to 70cm of new snow now sits on the February 16th Surface Hoar layer and is slowly settling into a cohesive slab. The February 8th weakness is now down 80-100cm. This layer is a combination of weak layers: In most locations it marks a widespread surface hoar layer. On steep south & west facing aspects a sun crust that formed during the drought was also buried on Feb. 8th. This crust likely has a bit of faceting below it too, meaning that most terrain in the region has a weak layer 40-60cm under the snow surface. Below this problematic interface a well settled mid pack is in place. It should be noted that large cornices remain widespread throughout the region and may fail as temperatures fluctuate over the next few days.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Strong W-NW winds continue to build dense wind slabs in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain at all elevations.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Certain

Expected Size

2 - 7

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Several buried weaknesses including surface hoar and/or a crust are ripe for triggering naturally or by the weight of a person. It may be possible to trigger avalanches in surprisingly low-angle terrain or from a distance.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1 - 6

Valid until: Feb 23rd, 2012 8:00AM