Avalanche Forecast

Good

Thursday: Mainly dry under a weak ridge of high pressure. Isolated flurries are possible but accumulations should be very light. FL 600-800m. Friday: Light to moderate snowfall - 10-15cm with the greatest amounts likely in the south. FL 500-800m. Winds should be moderate from the southwest. Saturday: Flurries continue in most areas. Winds should ease to light and variable. FL lowers to valley bottom.

It is likely that a large and widespread avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday. This cycle should continue into Thursday with forecast strong winds. Previous reports include numerous natural avalanches up to Size 3 and several remotely triggered avalanches up to Size 2.5. Avalanches were reported at all elevations and on slopes as shallow as 25 degrees.

Moderate west-northwest winds are creating weak wind slabs in exposed alpine and treeline terrain. Up to 70cm of new snow now sits on the February 16th Surface Hoar layer and is slowly settling into a cohesive slab. The February 8th weakness is now down 80-100cm. This layer is a combination of weak layers: In most locations it marks a widespread surface hoar layer. On steep south & west facing aspects a sun crust that formed during the drought was also buried on Feb. 8th. This crust likely has a bit of faceting below it too, meaning that most terrain in the region has a weak layer 40-60cm under the snow surface. Below this problematic interface a well settled mid pack is in place. It should be noted that large cornices remain widespread throughout the region and may fail as temperatures fluctuate over the next few days.