Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 7th, 2014 10:23AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Wet Slabs and Wind Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Columbia.

With no refreeze Monday night, it will probably be very challenging to find terrain free of significant hazard on Tuesday.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The ridging is looking a bit weaker today, but the freezing level is still forecast to top out around 2300m Monday, and its expected to remain there through Tuesday afternoon.Monday Night: Freezing Level: 2300m - 2500mTuesday: Freezing Level: 2300m - 2500m; Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, SWTuesday Night: Freezing Level: 2500m lowering to 1300m; Precipitation: 4:8mm - 4:15cm;Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1200m - 1800m; Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Light, W | Ridgetop: Moderate, WThursday: Freezing Level: 1200m rising to 2200m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Light, Variable | Ridgetop: Moderate, W

Avalanche Summary

Wind slab avalanches ran to size 1.5 Sunday, with the bulk of the activity being reported from steep north through east facing terrain immediately below ridgecrest. In the central/east portion of the region a few small avalanches were triggered by skiers to size 1.5 on north through east facing features around 2300m. These were reportedly running on a thin crust from early April.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures have resulted in good settlement and bonding of the storm snow from earlier in the week, but there are still isolated rider triggerable wind slabs on wind exposed north through east facing features.Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Columbias:The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm still has potential for human-triggering in isolated areas. The early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human triggering, but still has the capacity to produce large avalanches.The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Temperatures are not expected to dip below zero Monday night below 2200m which has the potential to wake up deeply buried weak layers in the snowpack. If these monsters begin to stir, the results could be catastrophic.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of the potential for very large, deep and destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried persistent weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

4 - 8

Wet Slabs

With no overnight refreeze, the snowpack will likely be wet and sloppy below 2200m Tuesday. Loose wet avalanches, cornice fall and even wet slab avalanches will likely be a problem all day.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Watch for clues like pinwheels, sluffing and wet surface snow, that tell you the snowpack is too warm, and it's time to head home.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs immediately lee of ridge crest remain sensitive to human triggering. Wind slab avalanches failing in the alpine may step down and entrain unexpected mass as they interact with wet sloppy snow below 2200m.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by windloading may reach run out zones.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Apr 8th, 2014 2:00PM