Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Although a slow cooling trend Wednesday is expected to improve avalanche hazard in the aftermath of the storm, continuing snow and wind in the alpine requires managing potentially reactive storm slabs.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday night: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow above 1500 m and rain below, strong southwest winds, alpine temperatures around 4 C with freezing levels dropping from 2200 m.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, 3-5 cm of snow, moderate west winds, alpine high temperatures near 2 C with freezing level dropping to 1000 m.
Thursday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, light west winds, alpine high temperatures near -1 C, freezing level dropping below 500 m.
Friday: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow overnight before precipitation changes to rain early morning as freezing levels jump to 2000 m, strong southwest winds, alpine high temperatures near 5 C.
Avalanche Summary
A size 1.5 natural wet loose avalanche was reported during the most recent storm.
Snowpack Summary
Substantial amounts of rain have soaked the existing snowpack up to 2200 m. With forecast freezing levels slowly dropping throughout the day, the overall hazard trend is expected to improve. Above 1500 m, an additional 20-30 cm of snow could fall forming a potentially reactive new slab layer, especially where strong southwest winds drift the new snow into deeper, stiffer slabs.
Snowpack depths near treeline range from 150-200 cm, and the snowpack diminishes rapidly with elevation.
Terrain and Travel
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Continuing snowfall at higher elevations on Wednesday is expected to accumulate another 20-30 cm and build potentially reactive storm slabs on all aspects as the freezing level drops. This new snow problem will be more pronounced in areas where the snow has been drifted and stiffened by wind.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Substantial amounts of rain have fallen over the past 24 hours, soaking the snowpack and producing wet loose avalanches. Although these avalanches initiate as point releases, they have the potential to entrain large amounts of dense, heavy snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2