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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 25th, 2017–Nov 26th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Watch tomorrow's freezing levels. It wouldn 't take much change in temperature or precipitation input to push the treeline hazard to considerable.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Flurries overnight with more significant snow starting around noon tomorrow.  We are expecting 20cm by Sunday night. As any experienced local would guess, the accompanying SW winds will be strong (55-70km/hr) as the storm plays through. Freezing levels will climb up to 2200m tomorrow. Temperatures will fall as the storm passes.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent avalanches were noted on various aspects. They were up to sz2.5, and in confined areas/gullies they ran quite far. All of them originated from steep cliff terrain and pulled out slabs below.

Snowpack Summary

There were a few scattered flurries today, but no significant accumulation. The 10-15 cm from yesterday has helped to cover the crust and at upper elevations has likely improved the ski quality, however that can't be confirmed first hand. The latest crust is thought to be as high as 2500m on all aspects, and quite thick given the extended length of the warm spell/rain. Given the new snow and recent SW winds, fresh wind slabs are expected in immediate lee areas in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

These will be concentrated to immediate lee areas for now. As winds increase, expect them to move lower and become larger
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

We are still suspect of this layer. Expect it to be intact and reactive at upper elevations.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3