Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 18th, 2016 7:05AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Colder temperatures will tighten up the snowpack below treeline, but with increasing wind and precipitation the hazard will increase to considerable in the alpine and treeline.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with moderate snow falling along the divide this afternoon. Freezing levels hovering around 1800m. Forecasted winds are suppose to increase to 60 km/h gusting to 90 km/h overnight and lessening to 35 km/h tomorrow. Light snow is also forecasted to continue to tomorrow with freezing levels around valley bottom and alpine high temperatures at -7 °C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

Moist and heavy snow above a well settled snowpack at Burnstall Pass today. Below treeline the snow was heavy and well supportive to ski travel. At treeline, 2200m, the recent snow was failing down 20cm, but results were not concerning. However, this will change if snow continues to fall over the next 48hrs. The Feb 11th layer was found down 30cm and failing during stability test. The Jan 6th layer was down 90cm and did not produce any failures in the snowpack, however, caution is advised as elevation is gained, or crossing under large slopes, due to increased wind loading. General snowpack height at 2200m was 193cm and well supportive.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Sensitivity to light loads could increase with forecasted precipitation and winds.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Low probability, high consequence problem. Beware of large triggers such as cornice failure.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Feb 19th, 2016 2:00PM