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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 9th, 2014–Jan 10th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

A big storm looms in our future. Forecasts are showing almost 51cm by Monday evening. The danger will certainly rise with the rapid load. Cornices are just starting to become a concern now as well. Always have a look at what's above you.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight should see a small storm cycle come through the Spray Valley. Winds will temporarily spike and up to 7cm by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will stay at the same level as the last few days, -12 in the alpine and -6 at valley bottom. There will be a short lull before the next storm starts Friday night. This one will be more intense, 23cm's over the 24hr period. Winds will once again spike to the extreme range at 3000m and strong range at ridge top. The long term shows yet another storm arriving on Monday. Stay tuned...

Avalanche Summary

There were a number of avalanches spotted today, however their age is uncertain. All happened within the last 3 days. Notable observations are:SZ2.5 out of the Mt. Kidd bowl (above ice climb). Debris ran to bottom of runout (over the ice at the bottom). The Oct 27 crust is suspected.2, SZ2's out of the second and third bowls on Rundle. One was a cornice triggered windslab and the other was a repeat performer on the Oct. crust.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong winds continued in the alpine today. Wind loaded areas in the alpine are quite distinct at this point. Exposed ridges near tree line are blown down to scree in many areas. This means that at TL the windslab condition is still developing. The slabs are expected to extend well below ridge lines and of course cross loaded features will become more problematic. Once the terrain is sheltered the slabs begin to become softer and less frequent. Below Tree Line (BTL) the snow pack is still weak with ski penetration of 30-40cm's. Height of Snow(HS) @ Burstall Pass 100cm, Height  of Snow(HS)@ Burstall parking 73,

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

As the wind continues and new snow is thrown in the mix expect these slabs to extend lower in the terrain. Crossloaded features are becoming more of a concern as their mass grows and likelihood of triggering goes up.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Whumphing at tree line areas has been a common occurrence lately. This is a reminder that this weak layer is still with us. Yet another reminder is the recent, large natural activity. See avalanche observations for more details.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6