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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2018–Dec 17th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Cascades - North West.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Continued snowfall and wind will cause widespread natural avalanches. Avoid travel in avalanche terrain.

Discussion

Avalanche Summary

Reports of natural and triggered avalanches continue in the Mt. Baker area. Periods of clear skies over the weekend allowed observers to view evidence of a unique and impressive avalanche cycle. Numerous avalanches were very large and destructive (some could destroy a house). Several ran full track to valley bottom. Many had very wide propagation (up to ¼ mile). The majority of avalanches failed on a weak layer (surface hoar and/or facets) buried 4-6ft deep.

Over the past week, Mt. Baker has received over 10” of water translating into several feet of new snow. Sunday brought an additional 2” of water with rain up to 5000ft and heavy snow above. More snow and wind over the next 24 hours will continue to overload our fragile and scary snowpack.

Snowpack Discussion

Dangerous and fickle avalanche conditions remain as active weather continues into the week. Thick slabs of new snow (2-5 feet) are perched above a weak layer of faceted crystals. Avalanches triggered on this layer could be very large and life-threatening.

Reports continue to come in of very large natural and triggered avalanches in the northern and eastern zones. For perspective, several of these slides have been classified as D3, or large enough to destroy a house. You can find similar snowpack structure responsible for these avalanches in many other locations throughout the Cascades, including Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes.

Anyone accessing alpine areas should limit their exposure to areas where avalanches start, run and stop. In some places, the weak snow will talk to you by whumpfing and cracking. In other places, the heavy blanket of new snow is thick enough that it can give a false sense of stability while it masks the dangerous layering below.

Approximate snow totals from 12/10 - 12/16:  

  • Mt. Baker: 75”

  • Washington Pass: 35”

  • Stevens Pass: 42”

  • Snoqualmie Pass: 36”

  • Paradise: 51”

  • Crystal Mt Base: 29”

  • Mt. Hood Meadows: 21”

  • Olympics: mix of rain and snow, no net gain

The change in the snowpack is pretty dramatic with elevation. The height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for a while. Mt. Hood and Hurricane Ridge have low snow coverage below 5000’.

If you're out in the mountains, please let us know what you see.

Be cautious and get home safe.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A very concerning weak layer is buried under several feet of new snow. Additional snow and wind Monday will thicken the existing slab and continue to stress the snowpack. If you trigger the deeper layer, the resulting avalanche will be very large and destructive. These avalanches could break near the ground and act in surprising ways. You may be able to trigger these avalanches remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 2