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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2016–Dec 4th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The avalanche danger will increase with continued snow loading. Consider what terrain is above you and limit your exposure.  The time to be conservative in your route selection is now.

Weather Forecast

Continued snowfall should add another 10cm by mid day Sunday.  The start of the new week will be ushered in by cold temperatures moving in to the forecast area. 

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs will be developing as the new snow settles. 20-30cm of storm snow overlies windslab and settled snow in the alpine. The Nov crust is 70-120cm down in the pack and producing variable results on field tests. Tests on SW aspect at 2075m indicated that light loads may trigger it. Other locations the bond on the crust is yet to be an issue.

Avalanche Summary

Little natural activity reported or observed in the last couple of days. Avalanche activity is expected to increase with continued loading.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Moderate winds and significant snowfall should be creating sensitive storm slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline.
New snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Test slopes before committing to them.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

20cm of storm snow so far with another 10cm expected by Sunday. This is in addition to the 20cm of soft snow on the old snow surface. Loose snow avalanches can be expected in steeper terrain.
Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.Avoid lingering in runout zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Storm snow loading on top of the persistent slab/Nov crust could make this deep slab more reactive. Field tests so far show variability with areas that are unreactive and others where light loads may trigger slides on this layer.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3