Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2017–Jan 17th, 2017

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

A warm, intense storm system is headed our way. This will be a rapid change and will be a shock to the cold snowpack. Freezing levels are expected to stay at valley bottom, but danger will rise very quickly if the snow turns to rain.

Weather Forecast

Today expect a mostly cloudy day with isolated flurries and an alpine high of -5'C. The storm front is expected to arrive late in the day with up to 25cm expected overnight and increasing SW winds. On Tuesday expect another 20cm with freezing levels rising to 1200m. By Wednesday freezing levels are forecast to rise to 1700m with another 15cm.

Snowpack Summary

Thin windslabs exist at ridgecrest and on lee features in the alpine, and have occasionally have been reactive on unsupported features. Cold temps have facetted the surface snow and broken down old windslabs in many areas. A new surface hoar layer up to size 6 has grown at treeline and below, but are smaller at higher elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Recent natural avalanche activity has been limited to steep, unskiable terrain. Skiers reported sluffing of the weak facetted snow when skiing steep terrain.

Confidence

Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin stiff windslabs exist along ridge crests and cross loaded features formed by moderate SW winds. These slabs are variable in distribution so take time to assess slopes independently. Avoid convex rolls and unsupported terrain.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2