Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

  

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 3-10 cm. / Strong, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -2 / Freezing level dropping to 1500 m.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Strong, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 1 / Freezing level 1500 m.

MONDAY: Sunny / Light, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 3 / Freezing level 1800 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 7 / Freezing level 2300 m.

Numerous explosive triggered wet slab avalanches size 3-3.5 and one size 3.5 deep persistent slab avalanche were reported on solar aspects on Friday.

There have been some large deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by warming to the south around Jasper and Banff, and we suspect this problem may extend into the North Rockies.

Sustained warming can increase the likelihood of large avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers.This is most likely to occur on steep, rocky alpine slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack. 

Forecast flurries and strong northeasterly winds Saturday night may form small wind slabs on lee features below ridgetops.

Warm temperatures are melting the surface on all but the highest north-facing slopes, creating weak surface snow during the heat of the day. Crusts may form overnight. 

 Strong solar radiation and warming will likely trigger the large cornices that hang over ridgelines. Cornice falls could trigger large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers. 

As heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack it has the potential to reactivate deeper weak layers, including a layer from mid-February and weak facets at the bottom of the snowpack. The most likely areas to be concerned about deeper weak layers are shallow parts of the region along the eastern slopes of the Rockies like Core Lodge, Wolverine, Bullmoose, Upper Burnt and perhaps around Mt. Robson. In general, steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack are most suspect.

• Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.
• Avoid exposure to sunny slopes, especially in the afternoon.
• The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
• If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.