Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Tuesday: Expect flurries with some clearer spells, treeline temperatures around -8C and light SW winds that may pick up slightly in the afternoon.Wednesday: A Pacific frontal system makes landfall overnight Tuesday/Wednesday bringing 15-20 cm new snow. At the onset of the storm, winds will blow up to 80 km/h from the SW, then reduce in strength to around 40 km/h from the south through most of Wednesday. Treeline temperatures should be around -4C.Thursday: The tail end of the storm will bring further light snowfall (around 5 cm), moderate SE'ly winds and treeline temperatures rising to around -1C.

Natural avalanche activity was observed in several parts of the region up to size 2. The avalanche activity affected all aspects but appeared to be isolated to the recent storm snow, producing avalanches 30 to 75 cm deep depending on the local depth of the new snow.

Storm snow accumulations in the north and near the coast (for example the mountains near Stewart) are as high as 65 cm; away from the coast there was much less. For example near Shames it was closer to 20 cm of storm snow but the total snowpack depth only added 5 cm due to settling. The upper snowpack should be mostly settling powder depending on elevation. I expect wind slabs or wind affected snow in higher elevation exposed areas. A surface hoar layer, reported to be 5 to 10 mm thick, has been reported from the Shames backcountry. It may exist in other areas too. Snowpack tests showed sudden "pop" results on this layer, indicating the possibility for avalanche releases on this layer (although none have been definitely attributed to it as of 17-Dec). Deeper in the snowpack professionals continue to monitor a crust down near the ground. It seems this problem is confined to  alpine areas and likely needs a large trigger and / or a shallow snow pack feature to trigger.